This paper explores similarities and differences between the run‐up of oil prices in 2007‐08 and earlier oil price shocks, looking at what caused the price increase and what effects it had on the economy. Whereas historical oil price shocks were primarily caused by physical disruptions of supply, the price run‐up of 2007‐08 was caused by strong demand confronting stagnating world production. Although the causes were different, the consequences for the economy appear to have been very similar to those observed in earlier episodes, with significant effects on overall consumption spending and purchases of domestic automobiles in particular. In the absence of those declines, it is unlikely that we would have characterized the period 2007:Q4 to 2008:Q3 as one of economic recession for the U.S. The experience of 2007‐08 should thus be added to the list of recessions to which oil prices appear to have made a material contribution.
A cadre of international experts contributed to this book to provide a truly global perspective on the dangers inherent in our over-consumption of oil, gas and coal. Without fossil fuels, mass-produced food and clothing, international travel, cars, and many more things become rare or impossible. The authors provide details of the problem for a variety of countries, including the US and China, as well as those in Europe and the developing world.
Existe una 2ª edición de 2008, editada por Sheila Newman.
Contending that the energy debate should not be framed as «What energy sources will be available to replace fossil fuels?» but rather as «What population can be supported at a decent standard by the energy sources that will be available after the transition from fossil fuels?» Grant argues that we can create a more harmonious balance with the rest of the biosphere—but at much lower population levels with less consumptive habits.
Lindsey Grant is a retired Foreign Service Officer; he was a China specialist and served as Director of the Office of Asian Communist Affairs, National Security Council staff member, and Department of State policy Planning staff member. As Deputy Secretary of State for Environmental and Population Affairs, he was Department of State coordinator for the Global 2000 Report to the President, Chairman of the interagency committee on Int’l Environmental Committee and US member of the UN ECE Committee of Experts on the Environment. His books include: Too Many People, Juggernaut, The Horseman and the Bureaucrat, Elephants in Volkswagen, How Many Americans?
In A Thousand Barrels a Second, Chief Energy Economist of ARC Financial Peter Tertzakian examines the future of oil and offers insights into what it will take to rebalance our energy needs and seize new opportunities. He answers the top questions asked by business leaders, policy makers, investors, and concerned citizens as we approach the coming break point:
Are today’s high oil and gas prices part of a routine business cycle, or are there more profound forces at play?
Are hybrid vehicles our only solution against high gasoline prices?
Is China’s growing thirst for energy sustainable?
Which government policies work and which do not?
Will nuclear power and coal save the day-again?
Tertzakian also offers a realistic, informed look into the future of our energy supply chains and how our consumption patterns may evolve, revealing how governments, businesses, and even individuals can meet the coming challenges with better solutions and innovations.
World oil is transitioning from a market driven by consumer demand to one limited by producer capacity. The approaching oil crisis will impact the economic and cultural health of every nation. This research report examines oil reserves and production as well as cultural challenges in the Middle East. It explores four alternative oil depletion scenarios and outlines a proposed course of action to enable a «soft landing.»