This report summarises the main conclusions from the TPA’s assessment of evidence for global oil depletion. The subject of this assessment was chosen after consultation with energy sector stakeholders and upon the recommendation of the TPA Advisory Group, which is comprised of independent experts from government, academia and the private sector. The assessment addresses the following question: What evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of
‘conventional oil’ will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030?
The Green Momentum Group and Bristol City
Council wish to thank:
• The peak oil taskforce for compiling the report: Simone Osborn (author), Dan Green,
Peter Lipman, Kate Hoare, Susan Warren, James Durie
• Inez Aponte for the future scenarios
• All the individuals and organisations who provided information or feedback for the
Part 1 –
Peak oil and its significance for Bristol
Part 2 –
1. Peak oil in Bristol
2. Cross sector implications
3. Transport and mobility
6. Public services
7. Key economic sectors
8. Power and utilities
Part 3 –
Options for action
1. An introduction to peak oil
2. Alternative fuels
3. UK natural gas, coal and electricity
4. Who else is considering the issue of peak oil
5. Portland, Oregon peak oil resolution
Disponible en http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf.
A new study has been accepted for publication in the journal of Energy Policy. The article performs an analysis of the oil production forecast done my the International Energy Agency in 2008 and highlights several shortcomings as well as confirms oher parts.
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA‟s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.
The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA‟s present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the “policy makers, investors and end users” to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.
Dr John Constable, the Director of Research at the Renewable Energy Foundation (www.ref.org.uk) has written an important new article, entitled “Renewables won’t keep the lights on”, for the on-line Standpoint Magazine at http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/3639/full
By 2100, the global human population may reach 9.5 billion with 75% of these people located within urban settlements. Meeting the needs and demands of these people will provide significant challenges to governments and society at large, and the engineering profession in particular.
Four key areas in which population growth and expanding affluence will significantly challenge society are: food, water, urbanisation and energy.