Zentrum für Transformation der Bundeswehr (2010): Peak Oil – Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen

Zentrum für Transformation der Bundeswehr (2010): Peak Oil – Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen

Zentrum für Transformation der Bundeswehr, Dezernat Zukunftsanalyse (Center for German Army Transformation, Group for “Future Studies”). Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert – Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit – July 2010. Copia disponible en http://web.archive.org/web/20120224093722/http://www.peak-oil.com/download/Peak%20Oil.%20Sicherheitspolitische%20Implikationen%20knapper%20Ressourcen%2011082010.pdf.

Extractos traducidos a inglés en http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2010/09/02/leaked-study-peak-oil-warns-severe-global-energy-crisis/


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: 2010, alemania, conflictos, consecuencias del peak oil, ejércitos, escenarios, geopolítica, guerra, peak oil, seguridad nacional
Artus, Patrick; d’Autume, Antoine; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie (2010): Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil

Artus, Patrick; d’Autume, Antoine; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie (2010): Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil

English summary of the report pages 247-254.

Conseil d’Analyse Économique – July 2010: https://web.archive.org/web/20111107110914/http://www.cae.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/093.pdf

Introduction
Christian de Boissieu
RAPPORT
Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil
Christian de Boissieu, Antoine d’Autume,
Philippe Chalmin et Jean-Marie Chevalier

Introduction
1. La place du pétrole
1.1. Faut-il encore craindre les chocs pétroliers ?
1.2. La consommation d’énergie et de pétrole
2. L’évolution du prix du pétrole
2.1. Les fondamentaux de l’offre
2.2. La demande
2.3. La volatilité du prix du pétrole
2.4. L’évolution future du marché pétrolier
3. L’impact d’un choc pétrolier
3.1. Les effets macroéconomiques d’un choc pétrolier
3.2. Prendre la mesure du choc d’offre
3.3. Les effets sectoriels de la hausse du prix du pétrole
3.4. Les effets sur les ménages
4. Préconisations
4.1. Régulation macroéconomique
4.2. Une spécialisation productive efficace pour exporter vers les pays producteurs de pétrole
4.3. La croissance verte
4.4. Réduire la volatilité des cours et réglementer davantage les marchés dérivés des matières premières
4.5. Fiscalité
Annexe
Membres du groupe de travail
Personnes auditionnées
COMMENTAIRES
Benoît Coeuré
Roger Guesnerie
COMPLÉMENTS
A. La transmission de la variation du prix du pétrole à l’économie
François Lescaroux et Valérie Mignon
B. Élasticité-prix des consommations énergétiques des ménages
Marie Clerc et Vincent Marcus
C. Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long terme
Guy Lalanne, Erwan Pouliquen et Olivier Simon
D. Évaluation de l’impact macroéconomique d’une hausse du prix du pétrole de 20 % à l’aide
des modèles macroéconométriques Mésange et NiGEM
Yannick Kalantizs et Caroline Klein
E. Le Grenelle de l’environnement et la croissance verte: le regard de l’ADEME sur les investissements visant les économies d’énergie et les énergies renouvelables
Gaël Callonnec, Thomas Gaudin et François Moisan
RÉSUMÉ
SUMMARY


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: 2010, Antoine d’Autume, Benoît Coeuré, Caroline Klein, Christian de Boissieu, consecuencias del peak oil, consecuencias económicas, Conseil d'Analyse Économique, crecimiento verde, economía, energías renovables, english, Erwan Pouliquen, fiscalidad, français, francia, François Lescaroux, François Moisan, Gaël Callonnec, gobiernos, Guy Lalanne, Jean-Marie Chevalier, Marie Clerc, materias primas, modelos, Olivier Simon, peak oil, Philippe Chalmin, política energética, política fiscal, precios del petróleo, previsiones, propuestas, recursos, regulación macroeconómica, Roger Guesnerie, Thomas Gaudin, Valérie Mignon, Vincent Marcus, Yannick Kalantizs
SMITH, CLINT (2010): The next oil shock?

SMITH, CLINT (2010): The next oil shock?

New Zealand Parliamentary Research Paper – October 2010

Disponible (copia) en https://web.archive.org/web/20120107194821/http://www.parliament.nz/NR/rdonlyres/7BEC9297-DEBE-47B5-9A04-77617E2653B2/162644/Thenextoilshock1.pdf

Clint Smith
Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team
Parliamentary Library

The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.

New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on
bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: 2010, consecuencias del peak oil, consecuencias económicas, diagnóstico, english, fin del crecimiento, nueva zelanda, peak oil, precios del petróleo, previsiones, recesión
Kurtenbach, Christian; Ramos, Pedro; Kunc, Martin (2010): The Influence of UK Energy Security and Peak Oil as Drivers Impacting on WCC Services and Activities

Kurtenbach, Christian; Ramos, Pedro; Kunc, Martin (2010): The Influence of UK Energy Security and Peak Oil as Drivers Impacting on WCC Services and Activities

Warwick Business School, MSc Business Analytics and Consulting – October 2010.

This study analyses the influence of UK Energy Security and Peak Oil as drivers
impacting on Warwickshire County Council (WCC) activities. The questions addressed by the study are what UK Energy Security and Peak Oil are all about, why they matter, how they impact on WCC, and what the authority’s next steps should be.

(…)

Our results show that WCC Services are affected by these threats through increased costs, changes in demand, impacts on staff, and possibly shortages. Some areas are more severely affected than others and the nature of the impact varies, but all of the areas analysed are exposed to these risks in some way.

Disponible en http://btckstorage.blob.core.windows.net/site369/WBS%20Final%20Rpt%20Influence%20of%20Energy%20Security%20Peak%20Oil%20on%20WarwickshireCC%20Services%2005Oct10%20with%20Caveat.pdf


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: alimentación, ayuntamientos, bomberos, cadenas de suministro, consecuencias del peak oil, construcción, demanda energética, desabastecimientos, familias, gobiernos locales, jóvenes, niños, peak oil, precios del petróleo, preparación ante el peak oil, reino unido, riesgos, seguridad energética, servicios municipales, transporte, Warwick Business School, Warwickshire County Council

FLEMING, DAVID; CHAMBERLIN, SHAUN (2011): TEQs – Tradable Energy Quotas: A Policy Framework for Peak Oil and Climate Change

House of Commons All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil & The Lean Economy Connection – January 2011

Disponible (?) en http://www.appgopo.org.uk/documents/TEQ_18Jan2011.pdf


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, APPGOPO, cambio climático, english, peak oil, políticas públicas, propuestas, TEQ, The Lean Economy Connection

DECC (2011): The risks and impacts of a potential future decline in oil production

UK Department of Energy & Climate Change.

Disponible (?) en https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-risks-and-impacts-of-a-potential-future-decline-in-oil-production

A DECC report summarising the main outputs of an internal project undertaken in 2007 by then BERR officials on the issues surrounding peak oil…


Genero: Informes y estudios, Presentaciones
Subjects: 2007, 2011, consecuencias del peak oil, DECC, diagnóstico, energía, english, peak oil, política energética, políticas públicas, previsiones, reino unido

Nisbet, Matthew C.; Maibach, Edward; Leiserowitz, Anthony (2011): «Framing Peak Petroleum as a Public Health Problem: Audience Research and Participatory Engagement in the United States»

American Journal of Public Health (August 2011): http://www.academia.edu/12191750/Framing_peak_petroleum_as_a_public_health_problem_Audience_research_and_participatory_engagement_in_the_United_States


Genero: Artículos, Informes y estudios
Subjects: 2011, American Journal of Public Health, consecuencias sociales, crisis energética, desabastecimiento, eeuu, encuestas, english, estadísticas, opinión pública, peak oil, precios del petróleo, salud, salud pública, sanidad

ROBERTS, SIMON (2011): Peak Oil Futures: A possible transport scenario to 2030 and its consequences, using the «4see» model

ARUP (All Party Parliamentary Group APPGOPO).

Disponible en http://www.slideshare.net/APPGOPO/peak-oil-futures

Existe supuestamente un vídeo de la presentación, de noviembre de 2011, pero está protegido por contraseña: http://vimeo.com/32199172


Genero: Presentaciones
Subjects: APPGOPO, ARUP, consecuencias del peak oil, english, escenarios, modelo 4see, modelos, peak oil, previsiones, reino unido, transporte