Aleklett, Kjell; Höök, Mikael; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Lardelli, Michael; Snowden, Simon; Söderbergh, Bengt (2009): The Peak of the Oil Age – The Uppsala World Energy Outlook

November 2009

Disponible en http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf.

A new study has been accepted for publication in the journal of Energy Policy. The article performs an analysis of the oil production forecast done my the International Energy Agency in 2008 and highlights several shortcomings as well as confirms oher parts.

Abstract:
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA‟s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.
The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA‟s present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the “policy makers, investors and end users” to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.


Genero: Artículos, Informes y estudios
Subjects: diagnóstico, energía, english, journal of Energy Policy, peak oil, política energética
Artus, Patrick; d’Autume, Antoine; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie (2010): Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil

Artus, Patrick; d’Autume, Antoine; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie (2010): Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil

English summary of the report pages 247-254.

Conseil d’Analyse Économique – July 2010: https://web.archive.org/web/20111107110914/http://www.cae.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/093.pdf

Introduction
Christian de Boissieu
RAPPORT
Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil
Christian de Boissieu, Antoine d’Autume,
Philippe Chalmin et Jean-Marie Chevalier

Introduction
1. La place du pétrole
1.1. Faut-il encore craindre les chocs pétroliers ?
1.2. La consommation d’énergie et de pétrole
2. L’évolution du prix du pétrole
2.1. Les fondamentaux de l’offre
2.2. La demande
2.3. La volatilité du prix du pétrole
2.4. L’évolution future du marché pétrolier
3. L’impact d’un choc pétrolier
3.1. Les effets macroéconomiques d’un choc pétrolier
3.2. Prendre la mesure du choc d’offre
3.3. Les effets sectoriels de la hausse du prix du pétrole
3.4. Les effets sur les ménages
4. Préconisations
4.1. Régulation macroéconomique
4.2. Une spécialisation productive efficace pour exporter vers les pays producteurs de pétrole
4.3. La croissance verte
4.4. Réduire la volatilité des cours et réglementer davantage les marchés dérivés des matières premières
4.5. Fiscalité
Annexe
Membres du groupe de travail
Personnes auditionnées
COMMENTAIRES
Benoît Coeuré
Roger Guesnerie
COMPLÉMENTS
A. La transmission de la variation du prix du pétrole à l’économie
François Lescaroux et Valérie Mignon
B. Élasticité-prix des consommations énergétiques des ménages
Marie Clerc et Vincent Marcus
C. Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long terme
Guy Lalanne, Erwan Pouliquen et Olivier Simon
D. Évaluation de l’impact macroéconomique d’une hausse du prix du pétrole de 20 % à l’aide
des modèles macroéconométriques Mésange et NiGEM
Yannick Kalantizs et Caroline Klein
E. Le Grenelle de l’environnement et la croissance verte: le regard de l’ADEME sur les investissements visant les économies d’énergie et les énergies renouvelables
Gaël Callonnec, Thomas Gaudin et François Moisan
RÉSUMÉ
SUMMARY


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: 2010, Antoine d’Autume, Benoît Coeuré, Caroline Klein, Christian de Boissieu, consecuencias del peak oil, consecuencias económicas, Conseil d'Analyse Économique, crecimiento verde, economía, energías renovables, english, Erwan Pouliquen, fiscalidad, français, francia, François Lescaroux, François Moisan, Gaël Callonnec, gobiernos, Guy Lalanne, Jean-Marie Chevalier, Marie Clerc, materias primas, modelos, Olivier Simon, peak oil, Philippe Chalmin, política energética, política fiscal, precios del petróleo, previsiones, propuestas, recursos, regulación macroeconómica, Roger Guesnerie, Thomas Gaudin, Valérie Mignon, Vincent Marcus, Yannick Kalantizs
RSPB; ActionAid; Friends of the Earth; Greenpeace (2010): Driving to Destruction

RSPB; ActionAid; Friends of the Earth; Greenpeace (2010): Driving to Destruction

November 2010.

Disponible en: https://web.archive.org/web/20111214052758/http://www.foeeurope.org/agrofuels/ILUC_briefing_November2010.pdf

National plans for energy and transport show Europe is set to increase significantly biofuel use. By 2020, biofuels will provide 9.5% of total energy in transport; 92% of these fuels will come from food crops (such as oil seeds, palm oil, sugar cane, sugar beet, wheat).

This will require an expansion of cultivated agricultural land globally, converting forests, grasslands and peat lands into crop fields. Up to 69 000 km2 will be affected – an area over twice the size of Belgium.

Total net GHG emissions from biofuels could be as much as 56 million tonnes of extra CO2 per year, the equivalent of an extra 12 to 26 million cars on Europe’s roads by 2020. This means that instead of being 35 to 50% less polluting than fossil fuels (as required by the Renewable Energy Directive (RED)), once land use impacts are included, the extra biofuels that will come to the EU market will be on average 81% to 167% worse for the climate than fossil fuels.


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: agricultura, agrocombustibles, cambio climático, co2, combustibles, ecología, emisiones de GEI, energías alternativas, english, impactos medioambientales, política energética, políticas públicas, previsiones, transporte, ue, uso de la tierra

DECC (2011): The risks and impacts of a potential future decline in oil production

UK Department of Energy & Climate Change.

Disponible (?) en https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-risks-and-impacts-of-a-potential-future-decline-in-oil-production

A DECC report summarising the main outputs of an internal project undertaken in 2007 by then BERR officials on the issues surrounding peak oil…


Genero: Informes y estudios, Presentaciones
Subjects: 2007, 2011, consecuencias del peak oil, DECC, diagnóstico, energía, english, peak oil, política energética, políticas públicas, previsiones, reino unido
SHARMAN, HUGH; LEYLAND, BRYAN; LIVERMORE, MARTIN (2011): Renewable energy: Vision or mirage?

SHARMAN, HUGH; LEYLAND, BRYAN; LIVERMORE, MARTIN (2011): Renewable energy: Vision or mirage?

Disponible en http://www.adamsmith.org/wp-content/uploads/ASI_renewables_report_colour_web.pdf

The government is spending enormous sums of money on renewable energy. This report assesses the economic and energy security cases for renewable energy subsidies, and finds that there is no prospect that renewable energy will be able to provide a substantial amount of Britain’s energy needs.


Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: Adam Smith Institute, energía renovable, gran bretaña, liberalismo, límites de las energías renovables, política energética, políticas públicas, reino unido