SPRU, University of Sussex – March 2010.
Subjects: 2010, crecimiento, energía, english, sostenibilidad, SPRU, University of Sussex
Lecturas para una civilización más allá del Peak Oil
SPRU, University of Sussex – March 2010.
The second report of the Zero Carbon Britain project.
Disponible copia en http://web.archive.org/web/20120103141845/http://www.zcb2030.org/downloads/ZCB2030.pdf
A research project commissioned by Siemens Limited.
This publication is a management summary of a more in depth analysis presented by the
researchers. The full report is available on request from Siemens Limited.
Disponible en http://www.siemens.ie/_documents/siemens_oilgas_report.pdf
Zentrum für Transformation der Bundeswehr, Dezernat Zukunftsanalyse (Center for German Army Transformation, Group for “Future Studies”). Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert – Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit – July 2010. Copia disponible en http://web.archive.org/web/20120224093722/http://www.peak-oil.com/download/Peak%20Oil.%20Sicherheitspolitische%20Implikationen%20knapper%20Ressourcen%2011082010.pdf.
Extractos traducidos a inglés en http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2010/09/02/leaked-study-peak-oil-warns-severe-global-energy-crisis/
English summary of the report pages 247-254.
Conseil d’Analyse Économique – July 2010: https://web.archive.org/web/20111107110914/http://www.cae.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/093.pdf
Introduction
Christian de Boissieu
RAPPORT
Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil
Christian de Boissieu, Antoine d’Autume,
Philippe Chalmin et Jean-Marie Chevalier
Introduction
1. La place du pétrole
1.1. Faut-il encore craindre les chocs pétroliers ?
1.2. La consommation d’énergie et de pétrole
2. L’évolution du prix du pétrole
2.1. Les fondamentaux de l’offre
2.2. La demande
2.3. La volatilité du prix du pétrole
2.4. L’évolution future du marché pétrolier
3. L’impact d’un choc pétrolier
3.1. Les effets macroéconomiques d’un choc pétrolier
3.2. Prendre la mesure du choc d’offre
3.3. Les effets sectoriels de la hausse du prix du pétrole
3.4. Les effets sur les ménages
4. Préconisations
4.1. Régulation macroéconomique
4.2. Une spécialisation productive efficace pour exporter vers les pays producteurs de pétrole
4.3. La croissance verte
4.4. Réduire la volatilité des cours et réglementer davantage les marchés dérivés des matières premières
4.5. Fiscalité
Annexe
Membres du groupe de travail
Personnes auditionnées
COMMENTAIRES
Benoît Coeuré
Roger Guesnerie
COMPLÉMENTS
A. La transmission de la variation du prix du pétrole à l’économie
François Lescaroux et Valérie Mignon
B. Élasticité-prix des consommations énergétiques des ménages
Marie Clerc et Vincent Marcus
C. Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long terme
Guy Lalanne, Erwan Pouliquen et Olivier Simon
D. Évaluation de l’impact macroéconomique d’une hausse du prix du pétrole de 20 % à l’aide
des modèles macroéconométriques Mésange et NiGEM
Yannick Kalantizs et Caroline Klein
E. Le Grenelle de l’environnement et la croissance verte: le regard de l’ADEME sur les investissements visant les économies d’énergie et les énergies renouvelables
Gaël Callonnec, Thomas Gaudin et François Moisan
RÉSUMÉ
SUMMARY
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) – September 2010.
Disponible en http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Fueling%20the%20Future%20Force_NaglParthemore.pdf
New Zealand Parliamentary Research Paper – October 2010
Disponible (copia) en https://web.archive.org/web/20120107194821/http://www.parliament.nz/NR/rdonlyres/7BEC9297-DEBE-47B5-9A04-77617E2653B2/162644/Thenextoilshock1.pdf
Clint Smith
Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team
Parliamentary Library
The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.
New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on
bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.
Disponible en http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/weo2010_poverty.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20120104131651/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/weo2010_poverty.pdf
Special early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2010 for the UN General Assembly on the Millennium Development Goals.
Existe versión en castellano (El fin del petróleo), publicada en colección de bolsillo por Público en 2010.
Índice la edición española:
En camino a ninguna parte:
Hacia el cielo:
Petroleum is now so deeply entrenched in our economy, our politics, and our personal expectations that even modest efforts to phase it out are fought tooth and nail by the most powerful forces in the world: companies and governments that depend on oil revenues; the developing nations that see oil as the only means to industrial success; and a Western middle class that refuses to modify its energy-dependent lifestyle. But within thirty years, by even conservative estimates, we will have burned our way through most of the oil that is easily accessible. And well before then, the side effects of an oil-based society — economic volatility, geopolitical conflict, and the climate-changing impact of hydrocarbon pollution — will render fossil fuels an all but unacceptable solution. How will we break our addiction to oil? And what will we use in its place to maintain a global economy and political system that are entirely reliant on cheap, readily available energy?
Brilliantly reported from around the globe, The End of Oil brings the world situation into fresh and dramatic focus for business and general readers alike. Roberts talks to both oil optimists and oil pessimists, delves deep into the economics and politics of oil, considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives, and shows that, although the world energy system has begun its epoch-defining transition, disruption and violent dislocation are almost assured if we do not take a more proactive stance. With the topicality and readability of Fast Food Nation and the scope and trenchant analysis of Guns, Germs, and Steel, this is a vitally important book for the new century.
In this romantic thriller Cassie Young is a rising star at a prestigious energy consulting firm when she discovers secret files that reveal the truth about the world’s oil supplies; and, it’s not good news. Soon, she finds herself locked in a game of cat and mouse that places her career and ultimately her life on the line. After reading her story, you’ll never think quite the same way about filling your gas tank.
Cassie’s transformation from one of the firm’s true believers into a worried skeptic begins when she meets Victor Chernov, a former oil trader. Contrary to the public pronouncements of her firm and many official agencies, Victor says the world may start running dangerously short of oil–the lifeblood of modern society–within only a few years. In her search for the truth, Cassie uncovers evidence that convinces her Victor is right. But that evidence now makes her a target for those who desperately want to keep an unknowing world in the dark.
A startling reinterpretation of contemporary events, Prelude follows Cassie to the Canadian tar sands; to the heart of Houston, the energy city; to an offshore drilling platform; and to the streets and suites of Washington, D.C. in a journey that unlocks the mysteries of a substance that the world cannot do without.