The Green Momentum Group and Bristol City
Council wish to thank:
• The peak oil taskforce for compiling the report: Simone Osborn (author), Dan Green,
Peter Lipman, Kate Hoare, Susan Warren, James Durie
• Inez Aponte for the future scenarios
• All the individuals and organisations who provided information or feedback for the
report
Part 1 –
Peak oil and its significance for Bristol
Part 2 –
1. Peak oil in Bristol
2. Cross sector implications
3. Transport and mobility
4. Food
5. Healthcare
6. Public services
7. Key economic sectors
8. Power and utilities
9. Summary
Part 3 –
Options for action
Key terms
Appendices –
1. An introduction to peak oil
2. Alternative fuels
3. UK natural gas, coal and electricity
4. Who else is considering the issue of peak oil
5. Portland, Oregon peak oil resolution
A research project commissioned by Siemens Limited.
This publication is a management summary of a more in depth analysis presented by the
researchers. The full report is available on request from Siemens Limited.
Introduction
Christian de Boissieu
RAPPORT
Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil
Christian de Boissieu, Antoine d’Autume,
Philippe Chalmin et Jean-Marie Chevalier
Introduction
1. La place du pétrole
1.1. Faut-il encore craindre les chocs pétroliers ?
1.2. La consommation d’énergie et de pétrole
2. L’évolution du prix du pétrole
2.1. Les fondamentaux de l’offre
2.2. La demande
2.3. La volatilité du prix du pétrole
2.4. L’évolution future du marché pétrolier
3. L’impact d’un choc pétrolier
3.1. Les effets macroéconomiques d’un choc pétrolier
3.2. Prendre la mesure du choc d’offre
3.3. Les effets sectoriels de la hausse du prix du pétrole
3.4. Les effets sur les ménages
4. Préconisations
4.1. Régulation macroéconomique
4.2. Une spécialisation productive efficace pour exporter vers les pays producteurs de pétrole
4.3. La croissance verte
4.4. Réduire la volatilité des cours et réglementer davantage les marchés dérivés des matières premières
4.5. Fiscalité
Annexe
Membres du groupe de travail
Personnes auditionnées
COMMENTAIRES
Benoît Coeuré
Roger Guesnerie
COMPLÉMENTS
A. La transmission de la variation du prix du pétrole à l’économie
François Lescaroux et Valérie Mignon
B. Élasticité-prix des consommations énergétiques des ménages
Marie Clerc et Vincent Marcus
C. Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long terme
Guy Lalanne, Erwan Pouliquen et Olivier Simon
D. Évaluation de l’impact macroéconomique d’une hausse du prix du pétrole de 20 % à l’aide
des modèles macroéconométriques Mésange et NiGEM
Yannick Kalantizs et Caroline Klein
E. Le Grenelle de l’environnement et la croissance verte: le regard de l’ADEME sur les investissements visant les économies d’énergie et les énergies renouvelables
Gaël Callonnec, Thomas Gaudin et François Moisan
RÉSUMÉ
SUMMARY
Clint Smith
Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team
Parliamentary Library
The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.
New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on
bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.
This paper explores similarities and differences between the run‐up of oil prices in 2007‐08 and earlier oil price shocks, looking at what caused the price increase and what effects it had on the economy. Whereas historical oil price shocks were primarily caused by physical disruptions of supply, the price run‐up of 2007‐08 was caused by strong demand confronting stagnating world production. Although the causes were different, the consequences for the economy appear to have been very similar to those observed in earlier episodes, with significant effects on overall consumption spending and purchases of domestic automobiles in particular. In the absence of those declines, it is unlikely that we would have characterized the period 2007:Q4 to 2008:Q3 as one of economic recession for the U.S. The experience of 2007‐08 should thus be added to the list of recessions to which oil prices appear to have made a material contribution.
Existen otras ediciones (¿anteriores? ¿posteriores?) con un subtítulo diferente: How to protect yourself -AND PROFIT- from the coming energy crisis.
Financial guru Stephen Leeb shows how following oil prices can lead investors to real financial security. A storm is coming-an inflationary ‘perfect storm’ whipped up by skyrocketing oil prices that will lay waste to millions of portfolios if investors don’t prepare.Renowned financial advisor Stephen Leeb asserts that in this perilous period, oil prices will drive all other economic indicators. But there is a way to diversify away from disaster, by dedicating a significant part of one’s portfolio to real assets that keep their value relative to inflation. Here, Leeb helps readers pick the ‘energy-producer star performers,’ and reveals the ‘double payoff’ to investing in metals like platinum and silver. He also explains why the stocks of ‘mega-insurers’ are a safe bet, and shows how investing in real estate does not have to mean actually owning it. Filled with sound advice for an unstable marketplace, this is the book no one with a 401K can afford to miss.
The depletion of nonrenewable fossil fuels is about to radically change life as we know it, and much sooner than we think. The Long Emergency tells us just what to expect after the honeymoon of affordable energy is over, preparing us for economic, political, and social changes of an unimaginable scale. The Long Emergency brings new urgency to the critical issues that will shape our future.
The inhabitants on planet earth are about to be caught between the twin hammers of peak oil and global warming, with coming global turmoil being the result. Leggett outlines the corporate/government cover-up that masks the problem, details the true status of our oil reserves, and proposes a new Manhattan Project for energy that can save us.