diagnóstico – Bibliografía Pospetróleo

Abundancy Partners (2009): Open Letter to the Queen

Copia disponible en http://web.archive.org/web/20091026023315/http://abundancypartners.com/open-letter-queen

Energy underlies everything – Scylla and Charybdis of peak oil and climate change. The underlying cause of the current economic meltdown is a multi-generational debt-binge inextricably linked to a concomitant multi-generational energy-binge. The Academy’s letter focuses on some «imbalances in the global economy». However, the key to addressing our current situation is to recognise the far more serious imbalances between our insatiable hunger for energy, its finite nature and the environmental pollution in its use.

Energy is the lifeblood of any economy. Our exponential debt-based money system is in turn based on exponentially increasing energy supplies. It is therefore clear that the supply of that energy deserves our very highest attention. That this attention doesn’t appear in the Academy’s analysis is deeply worrying.

Phillip Blond, CEO, ResPublica; Alain de Botton, Philosopher; Tom Burke CBE, co-founder E3G; Professor Herman Daly, Maryland University; Geraint Talfan Davies, Chairman, Institute of Welsh Affairs; Professor Lord Anthony Giddens; Stephen Hale, CEO Green Alliance; Andy Hobsbawm, Chair Agency.com, Founder dothegreenthing.com; Rob Hopkins, Founder of Transition Towns; Prof Tim Jackson, SDC; Tony Juniper, Author and ex Executive Director, Friends of the Earth; Professor Melissa Lane, Princeton University; Neal Lawson, Chair, Compass; Jeremy Leggett, Chair, Solar Century; Peter Lipman, Chair, Transition Network; Jules Peck, Partner, Abundancy Partners; Robert Phillips, Co-author, Citizen Renaissance; Sir Jonathon Porritt OBE, ex Chair, SDC; Mike Robinson, CEO, Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Chair, Stop Climate Chaos Scotland; John Sauven, Executive Director, Greenpeace; Anthony Seldon, Master, Wellington College; Matthew Taylor, CEO, the RSA; Professor Peter Victor; York University, Canada. 14/08/2009

Genero: Cartas abiertas, Otras publicaciones
Subjects: cambio climático, ciencia, crecimiento económico, crisis económica, diagnóstico, english, fin del crecimiento, gobiernos, Jeremy Leggett, Jonathon Porritt, peak oil, prosperidad, Rob Hopkins

UKERC (2009): Global Oil Depletion – An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production

UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), October 2009. Copia disponible en http://web.archive.org/web/20111016193244/http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=283

Steve Sorrell
Jamie Speirs
Roger Bentley
Adam Brandt
Richard Miller

This report summarises the main conclusions from the TPA’s assessment of evidence for global oil depletion. The subject of this assessment was chosen after consultation with energy sector stakeholders and upon the recommendation of the TPA Advisory Group, which is comprised of independent experts from government, academia and the private sector. The assessment addresses the following question:
What evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of
‘conventional oil’ will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030?

Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: Adam Brandt, diagnóstico, energía, investigación, Jamie Speirs, peak oil, reino unido, Richard Miller, Roger Bentley, Steve Sorrell, Sussex Energy Group, UK Energy Research Centre, UKERC

Aleklett, Kjell; Höök, Mikael; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Lardelli, Michael; Snowden, Simon; Söderbergh, Bengt (2009): The Peak of the Oil Age – The Uppsala World Energy Outlook

November 2009

Disponible en ~~http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf~~.

A new study has been accepted for publication in the journal of Energy Policy. The article performs an analysis of the oil production forecast done my the International Energy Agency in 2008 and highlights several shortcomings as well as confirms oher parts.

Abstract:
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA‟s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.
The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA‟s present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the «policy makers, investors and end users» to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

Genero: Artículos, Informes y estudios
Subjects: diagnóstico, energía, english, journal of Energy Policy, peak oil, política energética

SMITH, CLINT (2010): The next oil shock?

New Zealand Parliamentary Research Paper – October 2010

Disponible (copia) en https://web.archive.org/web/20120107194821/http://www.parliament.nz/NR/rdonlyres/7BEC9297-DEBE-47B5-9A04-77617E2653B2/162644/Thenextoilshock1.pdf

Clint Smith
Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team
Parliamentary Library

The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.

New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on
bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.

Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: 2010, consecuencias del peak oil, consecuencias económicas, diagnóstico, english, fin del crecimiento, nueva zelanda, peak oil, precios del petróleo, previsiones, recesión

Institution of Mechanical Engineers (2011): Population: One Planet, Too Many People?

Disponible en http://www.imeche.org/docs/default-source/2011-press-releases/Population_report.pdf?sfvrsn=0

Resumen, notas de prensa, aparición en los medios, etc.: http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/environment/Population

By 2100, the global human population may reach 9.5 billion with 75% of these people located within urban settlements. Meeting the needs and demands of these people will provide significant challenges to governments and society at large, and the engineering profession in particular.

Four key areas in which population growth and expanding affluence will significantly challenge society are: food, water, urbanisation and energy.

Genero: Informes y estudios
Subjects: 2011, agua, ahorro energético, alimentos, diagnóstico, energía, energía renovable, ingeniería, previsiones, propuestas, superpoblación, tecnología, urbanización

DECC (2011): The risks and impacts of a potential future decline in oil production

UK Department of Energy & Climate Change.

Disponible (?) en https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-risks-and-impacts-of-a-potential-future-decline-in-oil-production

A DECC report summarising the main outputs of an internal project undertaken in 2007 by then BERR officials on the issues surrounding peak oil…

Genero: Informes y estudios, Presentaciones
Subjects: 2007, 2011, consecuencias del peak oil, DECC, diagnóstico, energía, english, peak oil, política energética, políticas públicas, previsiones, reino unido

WILLIS, REBECCA; EYRE, NICK (2011): Demanding less: why we need a new politics of energy

Coal fuels about 50 percent of US electricity production and provides a quarter of the country’s total energy. China and India’s ferocious economic growth is based almost entirely on coal-generated electricity. Coal currently looks like a solution to many of our fast-growing energy problems. However, while coal advocates are urging full steam ahead, increasing reliance on the dirtiest of all fossil fuels has crucial implications for the global climate, energy policy, the world economy, and geopolitics.

Coal advocates argue that America has 250 years’ worth of coal. They say that although it’s disastrous stuff, coal is cheap and abundant, and so we should find a way to capture the carbon dioxide released from power plants. But what if the basic premise of that argument is wrong? What if coal isn’t as abundant as everyone thinks, and will be getting more expensive, and scarce, very soon? That’s the conclusion of a series of groundbreaking reports discussed in Blackout: Coal, Climate, and the Last Energy Crisis.

The book includes information from the National Academy of Science and the U.S. Geological Survey. Blackout goes to the heart of the tough energy questions that will dominate every sphere of public policy throughout the first half of this century, and is a must-read for planners, educators, and anyone concerned about energy consumption, peak oil and climate change.