About the RAA
RAA Position on ‘Peak Oil’
Background on Oil and Fuel Markets
Global Oil and Gas Prices
Australia’s Oil & Gas Production and Refineries
South Australia’s Petroleum Terminals
Global Petroleum Demand
Australian Demand
SA Demand and Prices
Effect of Rising Cost of Fuel
Public Transport
Measures to Reduce Petroleum Demand
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
Traffic Congestion & ITS
Fuel Tax Reform
Public Education
Petroleum Supply Issues
Reliance on Foreign
Federal Government’s Liquid Fuel Emergency (LFE) Response Plan
Alternative fuels
Biofuels
LPG
Natural Gas – CNG & LNG
Gas & Coal Seam
Hydrogen
A research project commissioned by Siemens Limited.
This publication is a management summary of a more in depth analysis presented by the
researchers. The full report is available on request from Siemens Limited.
Introduction
Christian de Boissieu
RAPPORT
Les effets d’un prix du pétrole élevé et volatil
Christian de Boissieu, Antoine d’Autume,
Philippe Chalmin et Jean-Marie Chevalier
Introduction
1. La place du pétrole
1.1. Faut-il encore craindre les chocs pétroliers ?
1.2. La consommation d’énergie et de pétrole
2. L’évolution du prix du pétrole
2.1. Les fondamentaux de l’offre
2.2. La demande
2.3. La volatilité du prix du pétrole
2.4. L’évolution future du marché pétrolier
3. L’impact d’un choc pétrolier
3.1. Les effets macroéconomiques d’un choc pétrolier
3.2. Prendre la mesure du choc d’offre
3.3. Les effets sectoriels de la hausse du prix du pétrole
3.4. Les effets sur les ménages
4. Préconisations
4.1. Régulation macroéconomique
4.2. Une spécialisation productive efficace pour exporter vers les pays producteurs de pétrole
4.3. La croissance verte
4.4. Réduire la volatilité des cours et réglementer davantage les marchés dérivés des matières premières
4.5. Fiscalité
Annexe
Membres du groupe de travail
Personnes auditionnées
COMMENTAIRES
Benoît Coeuré
Roger Guesnerie
COMPLÉMENTS
A. La transmission de la variation du prix du pétrole à l’économie
François Lescaroux et Valérie Mignon
B. Élasticité-prix des consommations énergétiques des ménages
Marie Clerc et Vincent Marcus
C. Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long terme
Guy Lalanne, Erwan Pouliquen et Olivier Simon
D. Évaluation de l’impact macroéconomique d’une hausse du prix du pétrole de 20 % à l’aide
des modèles macroéconométriques Mésange et NiGEM
Yannick Kalantizs et Caroline Klein
E. Le Grenelle de l’environnement et la croissance verte: le regard de l’ADEME sur les investissements visant les économies d’énergie et les énergies renouvelables
Gaël Callonnec, Thomas Gaudin et François Moisan
RÉSUMÉ
SUMMARY
Clint Smith
Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team
Parliamentary Library
The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.
New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on
bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.
Warwick Business School, MSc Business Analytics and Consulting – October 2010.
This study analyses the influence of UK Energy Security and Peak Oil as drivers
impacting on Warwickshire County Council (WCC) activities. The questions addressed by the study are what UK Energy Security and Peak Oil are all about, why they matter, how they impact on WCC, and what the authority’s next steps should be.
(…)
Our results show that WCC Services are affected by these threats through increased costs, changes in demand, impacts on staff, and possibly shortages. Some areas are more severely affected than others and the nature of the impact varies, but all of the areas analysed are exposed to these risks in some way.
This paper explores similarities and differences between the run‐up of oil prices in 2007‐08 and earlier oil price shocks, looking at what caused the price increase and what effects it had on the economy. Whereas historical oil price shocks were primarily caused by physical disruptions of supply, the price run‐up of 2007‐08 was caused by strong demand confronting stagnating world production. Although the causes were different, the consequences for the economy appear to have been very similar to those observed in earlier episodes, with significant effects on overall consumption spending and purchases of domestic automobiles in particular. In the absence of those declines, it is unlikely that we would have characterized the period 2007:Q4 to 2008:Q3 as one of economic recession for the U.S. The experience of 2007‐08 should thus be added to the list of recessions to which oil prices appear to have made a material contribution.
